According to a nationally representative sample of 331 Georgians interviewed in early October 2018, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 2.8 index points, from -15.2 in September to -18 in October. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index went down by 5.3 (from -17.3 to -22.6), and the Expectations Index by 0.2 index points (from -13.1 to -13.4) compared to September.

Table 1: Change in Consumer Confidence (in Index Points), October 2018

Table 1 demonstrates that all the groups were affected negatively in October 2018. What is striking is that the largest negative change is observed in the “Young” (under 35) and the “Higher education” groups. The Consumer Confidence for the Young dropped by 7.3 index points, from -2.6 (in September) to -9.9 (in October). The decrease in confidence for this group was once again driven by the lower present situation index. Correspondingly, the pessimism in highly-educated Georgian consumers is reflected in the downward average CCI performance by 5.4 index points, from -7.3 (in September) to -12.6 (in October).

Table 2: Change Consumer Confidence (in Index Points), in the Groups by Questions, October 2018

Table 2 shows the changes that happened in the perceptions of each group of the population by each question for the month of October. All the groups showed negative patterns in the questions concerning savings, whether from a personal or a general perspective and whether related to the present or the future. Georgians (in all the groups) are also not optimistic when it comes to the question “Is now the right time for people to make major purchases in Georgia?”. Looking at the patterns in the table above we can see which groups of Georgians were affected more negatively by the recent developments in the market (the present situation). For example, it can be observed that on balance, the present situation was viewed more negatively by urban (Tbilisi), male, young, and highly educated people. It is likely that people on the cross-section of these categories drove the Present Situation Index (and the overall CCI) down in October. It is interesting, however, that the non-Tbilisi population viewed the economic developments in the past twelve months in a more negative light, but on the balance, this group demonstrated slightly higher confidence about the future, especially in such areas as general economic situation, expected price increases and the anticipated ability to save. Interestingly, most population groups expected the general economic situation to show more improvement in the next twelve months, but the exceptions were among the young and highly-educated people in Georgia.

MONTHLY AND YEARLY CHANGES IN THE CCI VARIABLES

BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS