Business Confidence Index: momentous rebound of business optimism
27 July 2020

For the third quarter of 2020, BCI increased by 17.3 index points and reached -9.9 after a significant deterioration in the previous quarter. Business confidence improved across all sectors, except manufacturing and service. The largest increase is observed in the construction sector. The positive change in BCI, for Q3 2020, is driven by significantly optimistic future expectations.

The Past Performance Index, which considers the business sector's assessment of their own economic performance in the previous quarter, showed a downward trend, decreasing further by 14.4  points compared to Q2 2020, and reached a new historic low of -40.6 in Q3 2020.  The retail trade sector has the greatest decline in past performance.

Expectations Index, which reflects business optimism, recovered from the drastic decline in Q2 2020 and showed a significant upturn, reaching 20.8 points.  For Q3 2020 all sectors, except manufacturing have demonstrated increased expectations.  

The Sales Price Expectations Index declined further and reached its lowest value, -8.3 points, indicating a higher share of businesses that expect lower prices. Service is the only sector where a higher share of businesses predicts increasing prices in the future. 

For Q3 2020 access to finances and lack of demand became more important limiting factors for both types of firms, especially for large companies, which could reflect the post-Covid-19 situation that the business sector is currently facing.