Indexes
Quarter 1 2022 | Macro Review: A perilous road ahead: the Georgian economy at the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine
01
July
2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly affected nearly every aspect of the global economy, from food and energy security to supply chains and financial markets. The World Bank (June 2022) estimates that the 2021 5.5% rebound global growth is therefore expected to drop to 2.9% y/y in 2022. This slowdown has also been caused by fading pent-up demand from the pandemic, high inflation, and the withdrawal of policy support in major industrialized economies. The International Monetary Fund suggests that the United States and Eurozone are projected to expand by 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively, while China is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2022, a decline from the estimated 8.1% growth in 2021. In addition, the World Bank anticipates moderate growth from Georgia’s neighbors this year: Armenia (+3.5% y/y), Azerbaijan (+2.7% y/y), and Turkey (+2.3% y/y). The Russian economy, on the other hand, is expected to fall by 8.9% y/y. Moreover, supply chain disruptions, increasing energy prices, and worsening financial conditions have all led to downward revisions for projected growth in advanced economies. The economic growth in advanced economies is expected to reach only 2.6% in 2022 – 1.2 pp below previous forecasts. Expansion in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) have equally been adjusted downwards, measuring 3.4% y/y compared to the 6.6% growth of 2021.
According to Geostat’s latest GDP growth estimates, the Georgian economy grew by 14.4% y/y in the first quarter of 2022 (due to eased travel restrictions, accelerating growth in partner economies, and recovering production processes), which had a positive effect on Georgia’s external trade balance. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Georgian economy was recovering from the pandemic, which was also supported by increased domestic activity and external demand. Besides growing exports and a gradually increasing number of tourists, in the first two months of 2022, there was a significant rise in instant money transfers.
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Quarter 2, 2024 Macro Review | Strong gdp growth driven by key sectors amid global and domestic challenges
02
October
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
Quarter 1, 2024 Macro Review | Georgia’s robust growth amid global recovery challenges
28
June
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
Quarter 4, 2023 Macro Review | Georgia's economic resurgence: GDP growth exceeds forecasts amid global slowdown
01
April
2024
Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
2023
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
