Indexes
Quarter 1 2020, Macro Review | Early signs of pandemic
15
April
2020
In March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy started to sink into what is expected to be the deepest worldwide recession since World War II. Despite unprecedented policy support, the majority of countries have failed to soften the fallout from the crisis. According to World Bank estimates, global GDP will contract by 5.2% year over year (y/y) in 2020. The United States and Euro Area are projected to shrink by 6.1% and 9.1% respectively, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow at just 1% in 2020. In addition, all of Georgia’s neighbors are expected to face an economic contraction this year: from -2.6% (Armenia) to -6% (Russia).
Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to negatively impact the Georgian economy due to both internal and external factors. Reductions in tourism, remittances, trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), coupled with declines in consumption, domestic investment, domestic production, and service provision will hit the economy in 2020. Real GDP growth is expected to decrease significantly, the extent depends on the length and severity of the pandemic. According to the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Georgia’s annual real GDP growth forecast amounts to -4%, while the World Bank predicts -4.8% in 2020.
Recent Publications
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Quarter 2, 2024 Macro Review | Strong gdp growth driven by key sectors amid global and domestic challenges
02
October
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
Quarter 1, 2024 Macro Review | Georgia’s robust growth amid global recovery challenges
28
June
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
Quarter 4, 2023 Macro Review | Georgia's economic resurgence: GDP growth exceeds forecasts amid global slowdown
01
April
2024
Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
2023
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
