Recently, Geostat revised upward its real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 to 9.1% (by 0.1 ppt). The real GDP growth rate amounted to 12% year-on-year for November 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2021 was 10.7%.

The global economy continues to recover in Q3 2021 following the deep economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth accelerated as a result of the easing of virus- containment restrictions in most countries. According to the IMF forecast (October 2021), global GDP will grow 5.9% year over year (y/y), which is a downward adjustment from the previous estimate of 6% (July 2021).

Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.

In November 2021, the Khachapuri Index continued its upward trend and reached 5.37 GEL. This figure is 7.2% higher than the previous month (October 2021) and 19% higher than November 2020 (YoY). Every ingredient contributed to the YoY Khachapuri Index inflation: eggs (38.6%), flour (30.2%), butter (22.6%), yeast (18.7%), cheese (14%), and milk (10.3%).

The CCI is falling again. After the increase of consumer confidence in September, it dropped to a level similar to June, before the trend had reversed over the remaining summer months. The CCI decreased from -29.5 in September to -32.5 in October, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moving downwards.