While gradually increasing since June, in line with its seasonal trend (driven by a gradual decline in the production of fresh milk), the Khachapuri Index remains almost 10% below its level exactly one year ago. Constructed as a weighted average of the prices of various khachapuri ingredients, the Index is particularly sensitive to changes in the price of Imeretian cheese, its most expensive ingredient. The recent spell of annual deflation in the Khachapuri Index is thus a reflection of a peculiar sagging in the price of cheese (see table).

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

In September 2016, ISET’s Consumer Confidence Index added 13 points, the single largest monthly increase in the Index since its launch more than 4 years ago. Having risen from -28.7 to -15.7 points, the CCI rebounded to levels we have last observed about two years ago, in fall 2014 (i.e. at the outset of the GEL devaluation drama).

In August 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri increased to 3.15 GEL, which is 4.8 % higher month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to July 2016), but 9.6% lower year-on-year (y/y, compared to August 2015).