Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
For resilient economic development in Georgia, the country should encourage exports of higher-value added goods. In this report, ISET-PI and GET have found that Georgia might be able to develop a comparative advantage when it comes to exporting higher-value energy-intensive products. According to projections of its electricity network operator, Georgia will develop excess capacities of low-cost electricity in the next decade.
ISET-PI and GET have predicted the potential for Georgia to specialize in the international provision of business services. This potential can be primarily applies to the following practices: Operational leasing services, Legal and accounting services, Management consulting and public relations, advertising, market research, R&D, architectural and technical services.
ISET-PI launched the Retail Food Price Index in July 2015. The project is implemented thanks to the cooperation of the largest Georgian retail chains including Carrefour, Goodwill, Fresco, and SPAR. While data from the individual retailers are confidential, the average of prices from all stores can be combined to create a general FPI, as well as FPIs for individual products.
An average Georgian household spends more than 40% of its budget on food. It, therefore, stands to reason that Georgian consumers are quite sensitive to food prices, which may be very good news considering recent developments in global commodity markets. According to the latest World Bank’s Food Price Watch, “international food prices declined by 14% between August 2014 and May 2015, sliding into a five-year low.”