In March 2017, the national average price of cooking Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.41 GEL, which is 6.9% lower compared to the previous month (February 2017), and 4.1% above its value a year ago (March 2016).

By the end of March, food prices increased by 4.4% y/y (that is, compared to March 2016) and by 1.6% m/m (that is, compared to February 2017). On a biweekly basis, the biggest price increases happened for coriander (40.3%), cucumber (30.0%), and eggplant (14.9%). Carrots, onions, and tomatoes, on the contrary, became cheaper and cost 22.1%, 24.4%, and 15.0% less, respectively.

In March 2017, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri dropped to 3.41GEL, which is 6.9% lower month-on-month (compared to February 2017), and 4.1% higher year-on-year (compared to March 2016).

In February 2017, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri decreased to 3.66 GEL, which is 0.2% higher month-on-month (compared to January 2016), and 6.2% higher year-on-year (that is, compared to February 2016). The main contributors to the y/y Khachapuri Index inflation were cheese (12.1%) and milk (3.6%). The prices of the four other ingredients decreased: flour (2.6%), butter (0.4%), eggs (2.0%), and yeast (1.0%).

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.