Modest increase in confidence – Consumer confidence improved by a slight 0.8 percentage points in April (from -39.0 in March to -38.2 in April). Unlike in several of the previous consecutive months, however, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index did not move in tandem: while there are higher hopes for the future, perceptions of the present have deteriorated (see Chart 1).

The CCI deteriorated in March. We had hoped that the recovery of the Consumer Confidence Index, observed since December 2020, would bring the Index back to the levels observed last summer. Unfortunately, the trend reversed in March and the CCI decreased, from -35.5 in February to -39.0 in March.

Amid softened restrictions consumer confidence is increasing. The Index is up by 2.8 index points and the pattern is similar for both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index went up by 3.9 (from -43.1 to -39.2) and the Expectations Index is up by 1.7 (from -33.4 to -31.7) as can be seen on Chart 1.

Confidence is retreating after a recovery that lasted about 6 months. Last month, in spite of a slight decline of the CCI, we could hold on to the belief that we had reached a plateau in the recovery from the low numbers observed last April.

The recovery of the Consumer Confidence Index, observed from May to July, has been losing steam in September and the November survey confirms that consumer confidence is struggling to go back to prior pandemic levels.