According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.

The Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has gained 3 points (on a [-100/100 scale])1 due to the strengthening of business expectations. All of a sudden, the expectations of the private sector in Georgia improved and reached 38 index points. This is an improvement from 16 points in the fourth quarter of 2015.

After the early signs of rebounding seen in Q3 2015, the Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has lost 3 points (on [-100/100 scale])1 on the weakening of business expectations.

After the sharp decline in Q2 2015, business confidence (BCI) in Georgia showed signs of rebounding in Q3. In line with expectations, April, May, and June were ex-post not particularly favorable months for Georgian businesses.

After being steadily optimistic for most of 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015, Georgia’s business confidence dropped by 24.5 points to an all-time low level of 3.6 on a scale of [-100; 100] points. The survey, which included 168 firms, suggests that business confidence declined on all measures, across all sectors, and for all firm sizes. Moreover, it is reflected in business perceptions concerning both current performance and expectations concerning the future.