Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2018. The Q1 growth stands at 5.2%, which is 1.1 percentage points above the recent forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 remains unchanged at 5.9%. The first estimate for the third-quarter growth forecast is at 7.2%.

There was 2.1% decrease in agricultural production in 2017 compared to the previous year. Production in the plant-growing sector declined by 0.4%, while animal production experienced a decrease of 3.8%. Lower production resulted in lower self-sufficiency ratios for most agricultural products.

In May 2018, the average price of cooking one Imeretian khachapuri stood at 3.17 GEL. Compared to the previous month (April 2018) the Khachapuri Index lost 3.6%. In annual terms (compared to May 2017), however, the Index added 0.9%.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates of GDP growth, Georgia’s economy continues expanding at a moderately high pace, reaching 5.2% in the first quarter of 2018. GDP growth was mainly driven by an enhanced external environment, improved business confidence, credit expansion, and fiscal stimulus. Geostat’s Q1 growth figure is higher than the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 4.8% projection for annual growth in 2018 but falls behind ISET PI’s annual GDP growth forecast of 5.7%.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in May 2018 stood at 3.17 GEL, which is 3.4% lower month-on-month (i.e. compared to April 2018). The Khachapuri Index is actually up by 1.1% year-on-year (compared to May 2017), suggesting a slight uptick in annual inflation. The supply of fresh milk is approaching its seasonal peak, and this peak might be earlier than usual this year because of the early spring.