On 28 October, Giorgi Papava, lead economist at ISET’s Policy Institute, took part in an event organized by the Institute for the Development of Freedom of Information (IDFI), the main topic of which was the 2023 budget project.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2022 decreased by 0.1 ppt to 16.4% compared to the last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast remains unchanged at 17.3%.

Following the tentative recovery observed in 2021, global economic conditions worsened significantly in 2022 (IMF, July 2022). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 caused global economic growth estimates to drop for the first time since 2020.

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022, which now stands at 7.1%.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly affected nearly every aspect of the global economy, from food and energy security to supply chains and financial markets. The World Bank (June 2022) estimates that the 2021 5.5% rebound global growth is therefore expected to drop to 2.9% y/y in 2022.