A nationally representative sample of around 350 Georgians, interviewed in early October, November and December 2019, reveals that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) deteriorated in the two consecutive months, October and November, by 0.4 (from -19.3 in September to -19.7 in October) and 2.1 index points (from -19.7 in October to -21.8 in November) respectively.
In November 2019, Georgian power plants generated 913 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents a 1% increase in total generation, compared to the previous year (in November 2018, the total generation was 900 mln. kWh). The increase in generation on a yearly basis comes from the increase of 22% in thermal and 16% in wind power generation, more than offsetting the decrease in hydropower generation (-11%).
Just like every Georgian family, ISET Policy Institute is preparing for the New Year, and we keep to our traditions and have cooked up a New Year Supra Index for our readers. The Index shows the cost of a standard festive supra meal for a family of five to six people in every Georgian region. The traditional dishes included in our calculations are: mtsvadi, satsivi (chicken in walnut sauce), khachapuri, trout, tabaka (fried) chicken, olivie salad, pkhali, cucumber&tomato salad, and for the desert, fruit and gozinaki (caramelized walnuts fried in honey).
The real GDP growth rate reached 5.7% y/y in October 2019. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2019 was 5.1%. ISET-PI’s real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains at 4.4%.
BCI in the fourth quarter of 2019 has increased to 18.5 index points, which is 10.2 index points above the previous quarter. The largest increase in BCI was observed in retail trade, followed by the construction industry. In these sectors, the increase in BCI is driven by both increases in past performance and in raised expectations. On the contrary, agriculture is the one industry where BCI decreased.