
Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2020. The estimated growth stands at 2.2%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 3.7%. ISET-PI predicted 4.7% and 5.4% growth for the first and second quarters of 2020 respectively, based on February 2020 data. This data does not yet fully account for the negative impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy.

In March 2020, Georgian power plants generated 867 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents an 11% decrease in total generation, compared to the previous year (in March 2019, the total generation was 974 mln. kWh). The decrease in generation on a yearly basis comes from the decrease of 64% in thermal power generation more than offsetting the increase of 30% in hydro and 7% in wind power generation.

A nationally representative sample of around 350 Georgians, interviewed in early March 2020, reveals that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has declined by a significant 13.6 index points (from -19.5 in February 2020 to -33.1 in March 2020), compared to February 2020. This is the weakest and lowest figure since March 2017.

The data behind the Khachapuri Index is ordinarily collected in open bazaars. However, given the coronavirus situation and the related recommendations, our researchers can no longer visit bazaars to collect data. To overcome this challenge, around the end of March 2020 we constructed a short online survey and asked our readers to fill out a questionnaire on the prices of khachapuri ingredients observed in bazaars from various Georgian cities.

In the second quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 53.0 index points reaching an all-time low of -27.2 points. Business confidence deteriorated significantly across all sectors. The largest decline was observed in retail trade, followed by the service industry. The decrease in BCI was driven by worsened past performance as well as drastically pessimistic future expectations.