19
November
2020
Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate stands at -3.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2020 is -5%. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 was revised to -3.3%. ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -1.4%.
30
October
2020
In October 2020, the Khachapuri Index continued its upward trend and reached 4.37 GEL. This figure is 2.9% higher than the previous month (September 2020) and 12.5% higher than October 2019 (YoY). Every ingredient contributed to the YoY Khachapuri Index inflation: cheese (19.0%), flour (16.3%), butter (12.4%), yeast (16.4%), milk (2.8%), and eggs (0.3%).
28
October
2020
For the fourth quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 18.7 index points and reached -28.6 after a significant improvement in the previous quarter. Business confidence deteriorated across all sectors, except retail trade and financial. The largest decrease is observed in the construction sector. The negative change in BCI, for Q4 2020, is driven by significantly pessimistic future expectations.
27
October
2020
In September 2020, Georgian power plants generated 877 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents a 7% increase in total generation, compared to the previous year (September 2019, the total generation was 821 mln. kWh). The increase in generation on a yearly basis comes from the increase of 15% in wind power generation, 13% in thermal power generation, and 5% in hydro power generation.
21
October
2020
ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.
