The recently published government strategy “GEORGIA 2020” aims “to ensure that the majority of Georgia’s population benefits from economic growth”. The natural million-dollar question, however, is how this “inclusive growth” objective could be achieved in reality. In other words, how to make sure that the economy grows while creating jobs and business opportunities for the poor.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 5.6% to 5.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP annual growth estimate of 2013 from 3.1% to 3.2%.

The frenzied seasonal agricultural activities – purchases of plants, seeds, fertilizers, investment in food processing, as well as the upcoming elections, invigorated real economic activity in March 2014. According to the GeoStat primary estimates, in this month the y-o-y real economic growth reached 8.3%. As a result, the primary growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 increased to 7.4 %.

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 is unchanged at 4.9%, suggesting annual growth of 2.6%, while Geostat’s flash estimates are 6.9% for 2013Q4 and 3.1% for the whole year.

In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to explore the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.