Bubbles belong to the most fascinating phenomena in a market. Suddenly, people are willing to pay prices that are completely out of touch with the fundamental economic values of assets. In the stock market bubble of the 1920s, persons who had never before considered becoming investors borrowed money and bought shares, so as not to miss out on the chance to become rich.

The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.

ISET Policy Institute was contracted by the OECD to assess selected policy dimensions of the EU Small Business Act for Georgia. In order to complete this task, ISET-PI conducted desk research of the existing literature and conducted interviews with government officials, private sector representatives and members of the SME community, including civil society.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the Business Confidence Index decreased and registered 24.9 on a scale of 100 points. This is down from the 40.4 recorded in the third quarter of the same year. The positive number indicates that the confidence factor among businesses is about 25 index points more positive than negative or neutral (e.g. a confidence index of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook.

Key findings The Business Confidence Index (BCI) improves and reaches 40.4 index points. The seasonal factor has been driving a positive outlook. Most firms are optimistic about the next three months. The sales price expectations are outstandingly increased for the retail trade sector.