After a few months of strong GDP growth (November 2013-March 2014) a sharp decline in growth rate to only 2.7% (y-o-y) comes as an unwelcome surprise. According to the national statistics office, the VAT payers’ turnover is down and electricity demand has declined compared to April of last year.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 5.3% to 7.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.0%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released an official quarterly growth GDP rate for the last quarter of 2013 and it is quite impressive 7.1%.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 5.6% to 5.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP annual growth estimate of 2013 from 3.1% to 3.2%.

The frenzied seasonal agricultural activities – purchases of plants, seeds, fertilizers, investment in food processing, as well as the upcoming elections, invigorated real economic activity in March 2014. According to the GeoStat primary estimates, in this month the y-o-y real economic growth reached 8.3%. As a result, the primary growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 increased to 7.4 %.

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 is unchanged at 4.9%, suggesting annual growth of 2.6%, while Geostat’s flash estimates are 6.9% for 2013Q4 and 3.1% for the whole year.