After a dip in April, the GDP growth rate seems to be back on track, the year-on-year growth rate in July was 7.2%. Higher rates of electricity consumption and an increase in the change of VAT payers’ turnover corroborate this evidence. In July electricity consumption and VAT payers’ turnover were 3.8 and 15.4 percent higher compared to the same month in the previous year.

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7%. The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.1% to 7.5%.

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 and its preliminary estimates for April. These are 7.4% and 2.7% respectively. The April growth rate seems to be very low in relation to our forecast, but this low growth figure is most likely due to the relatively high GDP increase in April last year.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014has been revised slightly upward from 7.3% to 7.4%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.7%.

After suffering a temporary setback in April 2014, the year-on-year growth rate in May is back to upper single digits (6.3%). However, macro indicators suggest that the economic landscape has hardly changed between April and May.