The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 0.5% to 2.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has also revised upward from 1.6% to 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP growth estimate for February 2015, it stands at 4.9%.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 3.6% to 0.5%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at a low 1.6%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP growth estimate for January 2015, and similarly to our forecast, it stands at 0.5%.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP increased by 4.9% in February. This comes as welcome news after several consecutive months of low and, at times (November 2014), negative growth. ISET’s GDP forecast predicts 0.5% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015. However, this is likely an underestimation of the true outcome, as the economy has already partially adjusted to the external shocks that were the main drivers of the slowdown.

The economic slowdown of the closing months of 2014 continued in January 2015, with the growth of real GDP amounting to only 0.5%. ISET‐PI’s GDP forecast is not optimistic either, with GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 expected to be 0.5% (see GDP Forecast). The 5% economic growth initially forecasted by the government of Georgia, the 5.5% predicted by the ADB and the 4.2% predicted by the EBRD in September 2014 each seem quite out of reach now.

February is usually a good time to take stock of the country’s economic performance because at the beginning of the month statistical agencies release data on many baseline indicators for the previous year. Preliminary data reveals that the annual GDP growth rate in 2014 was 4.7%, which fell short of the 5% that had been expected.