The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.

On Tuesday, May 24, Dr. David Ubilava from the University of Sidney gave a presentation entitled "The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth”. Dr. Ubilava started the presentation with the definitions of such phenomena such as climate anomalies and weather and emphasized the importance of weather as a factor in agricultural production.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Georgian nation went through a process of rapid disinvestment and de-industrialization. It was forced to shut down industrial plants, sending scrap metal abroad, and workers into subsistence farming. Hunger has never become an issue thanks to the country’s moderate climate and good soil conditions, yet inequality and associated political pressures rapidly reached catastrophic dimensions, unleashing cycles of violence, undermining the political order, and inhibiting prospects of economic growth.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.

On May 13, 2016, ISET hosted the head of the IMF in Georgia, Azim Sadikov, who delivered a lecture for participants of ISET’s Finance Course for Professionals. The subject of his lecture was “Macro-economic challenges in Georgia and the strengths and weaknesses of its emerging capital markets”.