There was a significant increase in confidence during May 2021. The small rebound observed in April accelerated to 5 percentage points in May (from -38.2 in April to -33.2 in May), while both sub-indices (the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index) moved in tandem.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri currently stands at 4.33 GEL, which is 6.9% lower month-on-month (compared to April 2021), and 5.6% higher year-on-year (compared to May 2020). The main contributor to the price change is a seasonal decrease in the price of cheese, which fell by -13.1%, compared to the previous month (April 2021).

In April 2021, Georgian power plants generated 825 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents a 13% decrease in total generation, compared to the previous year (April 2020, the total generation was 944 mln. kWh). The decrease in generation on a yearly basis comes from the decrease of 4% in hydropower generation, as well as, from decrease in the generation of thermal and wind power by 56% and 18%, respectively.

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021. The Q1 growth stands at -4.2%, which is 1.2 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 stands at 12.2% -up from 11% in April. The third-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 3.3%.

Modest increase in confidence – Consumer confidence improved by a slight 0.8 percentage points in April (from -39.0 in March to -38.2 in April). Unlike in several of the previous consecutive months, however, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index did not move in tandem: while there are higher hopes for the future, perceptions of the present have deteriorated (see Chart 1).