A question of causality: Does modernization of agriculture lead to economic growth or does growth induce a modernization of the agricultural sector? For many years, this question has been hotly debated among development economists. While those economists who believe in growth-led agriculture (GLA) were dominating until recently, now the proponents of agriculture-led growth (ALG) are afloat again. Which insights does this debate yield for Georgia?

Based on the latest data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.3%. This is just 0.1% below the recently released annual economic growth projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 0.2% lower than the annual forecast of the National Bank of Georgia.

The IMF’s projection for real GDP growth in Georgia in 2017 was revised upward to 5.2% from the predicted 4.5% in April. This is the highest projected regional growth rate and is certainly very encouraging. Despite this, Georgia remains a small economy, where GDP growth has always been highly correlated to the economic performance of its large trading partners.

In what has been a decidedly international few months for ISET with recent visits to Japan, Norway, and India (as well as a trip to Uzbekistan in late October), yet another member of the institute's faculty has traveled abroad, this time to Germany.

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.