Geostat recently updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2018. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised downward to 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. The third quarter estimates so far remained unchanged.
This year has plagued a number of countries with tremendous natural disasters and extreme weather events. Greece was challenged with extensive fires and South Africa with a shortage of water. As late as November this year, the US was still struggling to tame forest fires. Something is certainly happening with the climate. These problems arise from society only being concerned with growth.
Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 4.0%, which is 3.2% below the ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 4.9%. ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 to 3.7% - down from 6.4% in October.
Growth projections for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2018 were revised downward by less than 0.1 percentage points. They now stand at 7.2% and 6.4% respectively. Recently, Geostat published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August, which now stands at 2%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2018 was reduced to 4.8%.
Is it possible to make long-term predictions on how climate change and the economy co-evolve as a means to understand the impact climate change has on the economy? Or for that matter, in what ways governments could encourage technological innovation in order to assure the continuation of economic growth?