For the first quarter of 2022, business confidence in Georgia decreased (by 13.3 index points) and reached 17.3. The highest decrease in business confidence is observed in service (-25.8), manufacturing (-20.8), and wholesale and retail trade (-16.1) sectors.

The CCI has fallen again. After a slight rebound of the Consumer Confidence Index in November, the index further improved in December from -31 to -29.8. However, in January the index decreased by 2.5 index points and fell to -32.3. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index followed the same trend in December as well as in January, with the Present Situation Index decreasing by 1.9 index points and the Expectations Index by 3.2 points (Chart 1).

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.

The new year started with a historic high for the Khachapuri Index. The Index continued its upward trend, reaching an average cost of 5.77 GEL in January 2022. This is 1.8% higher than December 2021 (MoM) and 23.7% higher compared to January 2021 (YoY). The highest price increase was observed for eggs (47%) and flour (31%).

Recently, Geostat revised upward its real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 to 9.1% (by 0.1 ppt). The real GDP growth rate amounted to 12% year-on-year for November 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2021 was 10.7%.