ISET

September 2016 GDP Forecast | Lari appreciates against partner currencies, but persistent dollarization may be hurting growth

30 September 2016

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.

September 2016 Macro Review | Georgia in the first seven months of 2016: crisis recovery underscored by low inflation, appreciating currency and falling merchandize trade turnover

20 September 2016

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

July 2016 GDP Forecast | Growth forecast edges upward following revised Q1 statistics from geostat

28 July 2016

The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).

June 2016 Macro Review | Real growth rate in georgia stays on track. Disappointing export data reflects the high shares of metals and car re-exports in Georgia’s external trade

30 June 2016

According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months.

June 2016 GDP Forecast | Early seasonal tourist inflow increases incomes and (dollar!) savings

20 June 2016

Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.