Due to a recent update in Geostat's GDP calculation methodology in December, revised growth rates show an upward trend compared to the previous month's figures. Consequently, our forecast for GDP growth has been adjusted upwards to reflect this change.

International wheat prices have emerged as a significant policy concern in recent years, notably during the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, as Russia has been known for periodically halting its grain exports to impact global prices. Georgia heavily depends on wheat imports from Russia, with over 95% of its wheat historically sourced from there.

Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.

In June 2023, responding to appeals from the Georgian Flour Producers Association, the Georgian government imposed a temporary import duty on wheat flour imported from Russia. This advocacy by the Association began after Russia implemented a “floating tariff” on wheat in 2021, making wheat imports more expensive compared to wheat flour.

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for December 2023. The estimated growth stands at 8.3%, while the average annual real GDP growth reached 7%.