This report highlights the derivation of sector-specific output (revenue), employment, and investment multipliers based on the Input-Output framework for the Georgian economy, which portrays the potential spillover effects of an increase in final demand for the products of a given sector on the whole economy.

According to the last four years’ data, Georgia has a chronic electricity deficit in ten months out of twelve, with the country showing an electricity surplus only in May and June (and, occasionally, in April and/or July). Despite the COVID-19 crisis dampening electricity demand in the country, 2020 was no exception. After two months – May and June – characterized by a positive generation-consumption gap, starting from July 2020 Georgia has been generating less electricity than required to cover consumption.

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP contracted by 3.8% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2020. As a result, the estimated real GDP declined by 5.0% in the first nine months of 2020, which is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) and National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) latest projections of -5% y/y (from October and November correspondingly).

The COVID-19 outbreak has negatively affected the Georgian economy through a reduction in FDI, exports of goods and services, and remittances. In addition, uncertainties caused by the pandemic and containment measures hit consumption and domestic investment. As a result of this reduction in aggregate demand, combined with increased production costs due to pandemic-related constraints, GDP is expected to contract by 5% in 2020 according to NBG’s latest monetary report.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in May 2020 stood at 4.18 GEL; 6.8% lower month-on-month compared to April. However, the Khachapuri Index did increase by 24.9% year-on-year (compared to May 2019). At this time of the year, the monthly downward trend in the Index is typically driven by a seasonal decline in cheese prices (due to the increased supply of fresh milk and a resulting lower demand for imported milk powder).