March 2018 extends a long period of “business-as-usual” for Georgian consumers. The overall CCI improved by only 1.6 index points (from -19.1 to -17.5), remaining within the narrow band of [-21, -16] in which it has hovered since July 2017. All the improvement in March is due to the 5.3 index points increase in the Present Situation Index (up from -27.4 to -22.2). Expectations have actually declined by 2 index points (down from -10.8 to -12.8).
BCI in the second quarter of 2018 has improved, reaching 39.6 index points, which is an 8.3 index point gain over the previous quarter. The improvement in Business Confidence is in line with the overall positive country performance (Geostat estimated 5.2% GDP growth in Q1 2018). The BCI increase is based on very high expectations and profitable past performance in almost all business sectors. Compared to other sectors, manufacturing assessed their past performance and expectations the most positively. In contrast, the agriculture sector is the most pessimistic, reflecting a low season in production.
Since 2012, when the political party Georgian Dream took leadership of the country’s governance, economic [real] growth reached its highest rate in 2017 (5.0%). The drivers of this growth were construction (11.2%), hotels and restaurants (11.2%), and the financial sector (9.2%). However, a few sectors of the economy declined in 2017, and one was agriculture (-2.7%).
The ISET Policy Institute presented to stakeholders the Regulatory Impact Assessment of the Draft Law of Georgia on Entrepreneurs at ISET on May 2. The project was prepared by the ISET Policy Institute with the support of GIZ and PROLoG/USAID.
The unique cross-country study compares interest rates for a set of retail credit products in Georgia and select transition economies. The results suggest that the cost of credit in Georgia is lower than in the CIS countries which have been covered by the survey (namely, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and in many cases Armenia) while it’s somewhat higher compared to a cohort of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE) - this is true especially for local currency loans.