After a few months of strong GDP growth (November 2013-March 2014) a sharp decline in growth rate to only 2.7% (y-o-y) comes as an unwelcome surprise. According to the national statistics office, the VAT payers’ turnover is down and electricity demand has declined compared to April of last year.

The frenzied seasonal agricultural activities – purchases of plants, seeds, fertilizers, investment in food processing, as well as the upcoming elections, invigorated real economic activity in March 2014. According to the GeoStat primary estimates, in this month the y-o-y real economic growth reached 8.3%. As a result, the primary growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 increased to 7.4 %.

In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to explore the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.

After reaching negative growth in June 2013 the y-o-y growth of real GDP started to improve slowly and already in November 2013 the growth rate catches up to its previous 2011-2012 higher numbers. According to the GeoStat primary estimations, the average growth rate of the previous three months (November, December 2013, and January 2014) is approximately 8.1% (see Chart 1).

2013 was a challenging period for Georgia. Elections, political and policy instability contributed to the significant slowdown in economic growth. Apart from the internal factors, external factors also contributed to the slowdown. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, world economic growth has decreased from 3.2% to 2.9% and IMF forecasts that the world will catch higher growth rates in the following years.