21
November
2016
Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2016. The Q3 growth rate stands at 2.2%, which was 1.3% below the ISET PI’s forecasted value. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2016 was revised downward to 2.9% from the 4.1% projected in October.
20
October
2016
Based on the latest data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.3%. This is just 0.1% below the recently released annual economic growth projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 0.2% lower than the annual forecast of the National Bank of Georgia.
30
September
2016
Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.
28
July
2016
The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
20
June
2016
Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.
