According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4.5% year over year (y/y) in Q2 2019, which fell slightly below the 4.8% growth predicted by ISET-PI’s GDP forecast from July. As economic growth constituted 4.9% y/y in Q1, the Georgian government’s 4.5% target of real GDP growth for 2019 does not seem overambitious.

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019, which now stands at 4.5%. This is only 0.3 percentage points below ISET-PI’s recent forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019 stands at 7.1% — 0.4 percentage points lower than last month’s prediction. The first estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at 5.5%.

In 2016 reform to levy profit tax was carried out in Georgia to accelerate economic growth in the country, create a favorable environment for starting business and production, and tax administration. The reform envisaged transferring into the Estonian model of levying profit tax, resulting in levying enterprises with taxes during profit distribution.

ISET-PI’s growth projections for the second and third quarters of 2019 were revised upward by less than 0.1 percentage points. They now stand at 4.8% and 7.5% respectively. Geostat has increased the estimate of the average real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2019 to 4.9% (by around 0.2 percentage points).

That Georgia is making strident progress on a variety of international indices is widely reported in the domestic press, but many Georgians may still view claims of their country ranking highly on global lists of safety and economic freedom with a degree of skepticism; after all, the average wage remains low, and there are few opportunities outside of the capital.