ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 has not changed and stands at 4.7%. The first estimate of the third quarter growth forecast is at 7.4%. The real GDP growth rate reached 5.1% year-on-year for April 2019. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first four months of 2019 amounted to 4.8%.

ISET Policy Institute implemented the project Shadow Analysis for Georgia in partnership with Ernst & Young Poland. Under the framework of the project, the ISET -PI team performed the following activities:

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates of GDP growth, Georgia’s economy continues expanding at a moderately high pace, reaching 4.7% in the first quarter of 2019. Geostat’s Q1 growth figure fell below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 5% projection for annual growth in 2019. Meanwhile, based on the March data, ISET PI’s annual GDP growth forecast was 4.9%.

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.

ISET-PI’s forecasted real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2019 remain at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 4.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 4.1%.