ISET

Quarter 3 2019, Macro Review | Georgia’s external demand and projected GDP growth remain strong – for now. But headwinds from the global economic slowdown pose a real threat

27 November 2019

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted 5.7% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2019. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%, which is above the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) growth forecast for 2019 (the forecast remained unchanged at 4.5%). Meanwhile, based on September’s data, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2019 to be 4.9%.

November 2019 GDP Forecast | Doomsday no more: improved trade balance and resilient external sector keep Georgia’s annual growth projections in line with last year’s performance

18 November 2019

Recently, GeoStat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 5.7%, which is 1.4% below ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%.

October 2019 GDP Forecast | August data keeps growth forecast steady, but downward correction looms

21 October 2019

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2019 remains at 7.1%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. While the third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at 5.5%. Geostat recently published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August, which currently stands at 5.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2019 was reduced to 5%.

Quarter 2 2019, Macro Review | Quarter 2 indicators in good order, but clouds are gathering over Georgia's growth prospects for 2019

27 September 2019

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4.5% year over year (y/y) in Q2 2019, which fell slightly below the 4.8% growth predicted by ISET-PI’s GDP forecast from July. As economic growth constituted 4.9% y/y in Q1, the Georgian government’s 4.5% target of real GDP growth for 2019 does not seem overambitious.

September 2019 GDP Forecast | Uneasy but not fearful: prospects of global slowdown and geopolitical tensions with Russia affect Georgia’s growth expectations

23 September 2019

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019, which now stands at 4.5%. This is only 0.3 percentage points below ISET-PI’s recent forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019 stands at 7.1% — 0.4 percentage points lower than last month’s prediction. The first estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at 5.5%.