Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2017. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised upward by 5.3% and 4.9%, respectively (0.2% higher than initial estimates). The third quarter estimates remained unchanged so far.

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of the real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2017. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 4.4%, which is 1.5% below ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2017 amounted to 4.7%.

Recently, Geostat published the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017, which now stands at 4.7%. This is 0.7 percentage points above the previously estimated average growth rate for Q2. As a result, the real GDP growth for the first half of 2017 reached 4.9%.

Geostat has recently released its rapid estimate of economic growth for the second quarter of 2017, which now stands at 4%. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first half of 2017 reached 4.5%. The ISET-PI real GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of 2017 was revised downward to 5.3%.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 6.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 6.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 6.3% real GDP growth in 2017.