Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. The estimated growth stands at 1.2%, which is 1.7% lower than the value forecasted in the last update of our model. Given the latest data, Georgian real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated as having been 2.2% (0.5 percentage points lower than projected by our model).

Mikheil Nadareishvili graduated from Oxford University with MSc in Applied Statistics before attending ISET and graduated as part of the Class of 2014. He joined TBC bank shortly afterward, motivated by his deep interest in using statistical and machine learning tools to gain insights from vast amounts of data and use them to inform policies and decisions. His initial role was to develop statistical models to segment customers, understand their needs, and predict their behavior.

On November 21, Prof. Dr. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel gave a presentation of a working paper entitled “Trade Costs for Heterogeneous Agricultural Products” at ISET. The professor himself and Mr. Yi Qu are the co-others of the paper, which aims to evaluate trade costs for 125 different agricultural products based on 1992-2011 data from 156 different countries.

According to the Khachapuri Index, year-on-year, we have observed a sharp increase (up by 9.1% compared to October 2015) in the price of butter. Typically, the price of butter should follow the price of milk, since the latter is the major ingredient of butter. Interestingly, however, the data collected for Khachapuri Index does not support this trend. Our data showed a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in the price of milk.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 1.5% in September 2016, while the growth rate for Q3 stood at 2.2% year over year (YoY). The estimated third-quarter growth was thus 1.3 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. One should note that the data from September are likely to include a very high services component (revenues from the tourism sector). Therefore, the quarterly growth number is likely to be revised upward in the future as more data comes in.