March 2018 extends a long period of “business-as-usual” for Georgian consumers. The overall CCI improved by only 1.6 index points (from -19.1 to -17.5), remaining within the narrow band of [-21, -16] in which it has hovered since July 2017. All the improvement in March is due to the 5.3 index points increase in the Present Situation Index (up from -27.4 to -22.2). Expectations have actually declined by 2 index points (down from -10.8 to -12.8).

Georgian consumer sentiment remained practically unchanged in February 2018, extending a fairly long trend of stability (or stagnation) that goes back to at least August 2017. The CCI lost a tiny 0.2 index points, declining from -18.9 in January to -19.1 index points in February 2018. CCI’s two sub-indices, capturing consumer expectations and present situation assessment, moved in the opposite directions. The Present Situation Index lost 3.8 (declining from -23.6 to -27.4 index points).

The second half of 2017 lacked any drama, at least as far as Georgian consumer confidence (CCI) is concerned. During this period, the CCI moved within a very narrow band of [-16; -20] index points, with monthly changes not exceeding one or two points. This trend continued in January 2018 – the CCI lost 1.1 index points, declining from -17.8 in December to -18.9 index points in January 2018. CCI’s two sub-indices, capturing consumer expectations and present situation assessment, moved in the opposite directions.

Georgian Consumer Confidence (CCI) continued to improve, albeit slightly, in December 2017. CCI added 0.5 index points over November 2017, and 8.7 index points y/y, which is compared to December 2016. Interestingly, people’s perceptions of the recent past and expectations diverged in December. CCI’s Present Situation sub-index went down by 2.3 points m/m, from -23.2 to -25.5), whereas the Expectations sub-index went up by 3.4 index points (from -13.4 to -10).

2017 is shaping up as one of the best years in Georgia’s post-2008 crisis history. The economy is expected to expand by about 5%, beating early expectations and official forecasts by the likes of the IMF and the World Bank. Based on updated GeoStat figures for Q1 and Q2, ISET-PI’s annual growth forecast currently stands at 4.9%. Even that figure is likely to be revised upwards if Q3 growth turns out to be higher than suggested by GeoStat’s preliminary estimate of 4.4%.