The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri reached 3.68 GEL in December 2014. The price jumped up by 9.5 % month-on-month (compared to November 2014) and by 2.4% year-on-year (compared to December 2013).

The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.

In December 2014, Khachapuri Index returned to its upward seasonal trend and reached 3.66GEL. This is 9.4% higher compared to the previous month (November 2014) and 2.4% higher compared to December 2013 (y/y). The main contributors to y/y Khachapuri Index inflation were flour (16.4%), milk (7.2%), yeast (5.1%), butter (3.2%), and cheese (0.7%), while the price of eggs dropped (-6.4%).

Based on the November data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 3.6% to 3.9%. The second forecast for the first quarter of 2015 increased from the initial 3.2% to 3.7%.

Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%. We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%. Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.