22
February
2016
The year 2015 was one of turbulence. It was a year in which the institutional foundations of the Georgian economy were tested. However, as our analysis shows, the country’s macroeconomic institutions exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of various shocks. This bodes well for future growth prospects. Thus, in the spirit of Lewis Carroll’s adage “take care of the sense, and the sounds will take care of themselves” we can give one piece of advice to Georgian policymakers: take care of the foundations, and the facade will take care of itself.
15
February
2016
With the New Year festivities finally behind us, ISET’s Khachapuri Index started on its seasonal downhill trajectory. In January, the Index slid 4.3% m/m, reaching 3.61 GEL per one standard portion of the Imeretian khachapuri. At the same time, it is some 6% higher y/y (compared to January 2015).
08
February
2016
The average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian Khachapuri stood at 3.61 GEL in January 2016. This is 4.3% lower m/m (compared to December 2015), and 6% higher y/y (compared to the same month of the previous year, January 2015). Thus, annual inflation, as measured by ISET’s Khachapuri index, is roughly in line with the official estimate of 6%, based on GeoStat’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
26
January
2016
We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the November data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 now stands at 3.4%. This is 0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous vintage of the forecast.
25
January
2016
According to the most recent rapid estimates of economic growth by GeoStat, in November 2015 the Georgian economy increased by 5.3% compared to the same month the year before. The 5.3% increase represents the highest growth rate in nearly 15 months. This optimistic outcome should, however, be treated with a degree of caution.
