20
April
2016
According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.
20
April
2016
We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.
18
April
2016
In March 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri stood at 3.27GEL, which is 5% lower month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to the previous month), but 6.9% higher year-on-year (y/y, that is compared to the same month of last year).
15
April
2016
Retail food prices decreased by 1.3% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Compared to the end of March, the biggest drops in prices happened in the vegetable category: eggplants are down by 11.8%; cucumbers by 11.2%; and cabbage by 5.3%.
11
April
2016
Spring is already here. Seeing more sunshine and rains, Georgia’s western provinces are enjoying the sharpest seasonal increases in the supply of fresh milk and dairy products, such as Imeretian cheese. This cheese is the main (and most expensive) component of the Georgian khachapuri, driving the sharp seasonal fluctuations of the Khachapuri Index.
