According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months.
Retail food prices decreased by 7.6% m/m (compared to the last week of May) and 10.1% y/y (compared to June 2015). The biggest drops were observed for tomatoes (-65.5%), cucumbers (-63.3%), and eggplant (-33.7%). Only a few products gained in value. The highest increases were recorded for cabbage (12.8%), tea (7.3%), and rice (7.2%).
The UNDP Farmer Knowledge Project was carried out in two phases. Data on Georgian rural households1 was collected by the polling agency Analysis and Consulting Team (ACT) between February and July 2015. 2 This data was analyzed with the purpose of producing policy recommendations by the ISET Policy Institute between November 2015 and July 2016.
In May 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.08 GEL, which is 2.7% lower compared to April 2016, but 7% higher compared to May 2015. Come the summer season, tourism provides a major boost to the demand for Georgian products (and their prices).
Seasons change, and so do Georgian food prices. In the second week of June, Georgia’s major food retail networks (Carrefour, Goodwill, Fresco, and SPAR) lowered their prices by an average of 3.9% y/y and 1.8% m/m. Compared to the end of May, prices moved the most for the following food items: eggplant (-21%), pasta (-10.3%), and coffee (-5.7%); wheat flour (+11%), buckwheat (+10.5%), and garlic (+6.8%).