Furthermore, high dollarization makes depreciation a dangerous process for the financial sector, as many people with loans or debts in US dollars are unable to pay. In addition, high and persistent dollarization constrains the effectiveness of the monetary policy, as the transmission of the monetary policy to the market interest rates and real variables are rather limited.

Both Georgia and Armenia have been subject to negative external economic shocks, particularly through remittances and exports, in 2014 and 2015, yet the macroeconomic adjustment of the countries appears to have been different. While the GDP growth of both countries remained relatively stable at around 3% in both years, the exchange rate of the Georgian Lari (GEL) depreciated by a 29% in 2014-2015 compared to 15% for the Armenian Dram (AMD).

One glance at the ₾Khachapuri Index chart (for locals) tells the whole story of Georgian agriculture. Left to fend for themselves during the cold winter months, Georgian cows produce very little milk, sending dairy prices through the roof. Conversely, milk production peaks with the arrival of sunny weather and green fodders in early spring, leading to a collapse of milk prices.

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.