On 16 December 2022, ISET Policy Institute introduced the “Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook” presentation, led by Selim Cakir, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Resident Representative for Georgia. Mr. Cakir discussed the key challenges affecting the economy throughout the region.
Mr. Cakir moreover offered an overview of the Russia-Ukraine War, and the high levels of uncertainty it has caused in the region. One of the main challenges the region still faces is high inflation, which started during the COVID-19 pandemic and has been further exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine War. According to Selim Cakir, in countries where inflationary pressure is significant, a tightened monetary policy should be maintained. Accordingly, the IMF assessed the monetary policy of the National Bank of Georgia positively.
As for economic growth, the Russia-Ukraine War unexpectedly had a positive impact on the Georgian economy and its growth rate, and as a result, the IMF increased its economic growth forecast to 10%. However, they do expect the growth rate to decrease to 4% in 2023.
On the whole, this regional economic outlook offers various IMF forecasts and reveals the key priorities that will help countries in the region not only deal with short-term challenges but also lay a solid foundation for a transformative recovery. The analysis and projections within the report thus underscore integral elements of economic development and the main policies of its member countries.