May 2016 GDP Forecast | March data shows remarkable stability of economic indicators
30 May 2016

Economic data shows remarkable stability in March. The Annual GDP growth forecast for 2016 reaches 3.4 percent.

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:

• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%.

• Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.

• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.