After the sharp decline in Q2 2015, business confidence (BCI) in Georgia showed signs of rebounding in Q3. In line with expectations, April, May, and June were ex-post not particularly favorable months for Georgian businesses.
After being steadily optimistic for most of 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015, Georgia’s business confidence dropped by 24.5 points to an all-time low level of 3.6 on a scale of [-100; 100] points. The survey, which included 168 firms, suggests that business confidence declined on all measures, across all sectors, and for all firm sizes. Moreover, it is reflected in business perceptions concerning both current performance and expectations concerning the future.
The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.
In the fourth quarter of 2014, the Business Confidence Index decreased and registered 24.9 on a scale of 100 points. This is down from the 40.4 recorded in the third quarter of the same year. The positive number indicates that the confidence factor among businesses is about 25 index points more positive than negative or neutral (e.g. a confidence index of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook.
Key findings The Business Confidence Index (BCI) improves and reaches 40.4 index points. The seasonal factor has been driving a positive outlook. Most firms are optimistic about the next three months. The sales price expectations are outstandingly increased for the retail trade sector.