Indexes
November 2014 Macro Review | Growth slowed in September on weak domestic, external demand conditions
15
November
2014
The Georgian economy’s growth rate appeared to slow down in September. According to Gaostat’s rapid estimates forecast, the real growth of GDP decreased to 4.1%. This estimate is the lowest this year since April when the growth rate fell to 2.7%. The ISET Leading Economic Indicators index warned about a possible slowdown of the economy in the third quarter, citing, in particular, the significant decline in exports that began in August 2014. The ISET forecast of GDP growth in the fourth quarter is 1.1%. The weaknesses of the economy seem to stem from two main sources: weak internal demand (lower consumer confidence in September affecting domestic consumption) and a slowdown in external demand (negative export growth).
External demand – export declines
Starting from the second half of the year, exports have been increasing slowly, but then plunged in August and September by 13% and 7% respectively, as compared to the same months of the previous year.
Georgian exports were significantly impaired by the regulatory import restrictions undertaken in neighboring Azerbaijan. The restrictions set by Azerbaijan’s government came into full effect in August, and effectively decimated the car re-export business in Georgia. Reduction in car re-exports seems to be one of the most important items driving the decline of exports. More precisely, it contributed around 5.5 percentage points to the total 7 percent decline in September.
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Quarter 2, 2024 Macro Review | Strong gdp growth driven by key sectors amid global and domestic challenges
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October
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According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
Quarter 1, 2024 Macro Review | Georgia’s robust growth amid global recovery challenges
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According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
Quarter 4, 2023 Macro Review | Georgia's economic resurgence: GDP growth exceeds forecasts amid global slowdown
01
April
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Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
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The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
