Indexes
Quarter 1 2021, Macro Review | The Georgian economy – a long and uncertain road to recovery
21
June
2021
The World Bank (June 2021) estimates that global GDP growth will reach 5.6% year over year (y/y) in 2021. Though thus rebound is uneven, with growth concentrated mainly in advanced economies and developing countries set for a slower recovery. This is driven by unequal access to vaccines, different paces lifting virus containment restrictions, and the scale of fiscal support to the economy. This year the United States and Euro area are projected to expand by 6.8% and 4.2%, respectively, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 8.5%. In addition, Georgia’s neighbors are each projected to show moderate growth this year: Armenia (+3.4% y/y), Azerbaijan (+2.8% y/y), Russia (+3.2% y/y), and Turkey (+5% y/y). While a recent World Bank assessment forecasts Georgian annual real GDP growth at 6% y/y in 2021 – up 2 percentage points (pp) compared to January’s projections. At the current pace, most economies will recover to 2019’s GDP per capita level by 2022. However, the emergence of more deadly and resistant variants of the virus create new uncertainties and further risks to global growth.
According to Geostat’s latest GDP growth estimates, Georgia’s economy contracted by 4.5% y/y in the first quarter of 2021, once again reflecting the impact of COVID on the economy. Despite strong fiscal stimulus and a rebound in the external sector, pandemic-related restrictions drove growth into negative territory compared to last year’s pre-pandemic period. Reductions in tourism revenue and foreign direct investment (FDI), coupled with a decline in domestic demand, were the main channels the pandemic affected the Georgian economy in Q1 2021. The full impact of COVID-19 on the economy was uneven: sectors unrelated to tourism showed double-digit annual growth (e.g., mining, manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, information and communication, etc.), while tourism-related sectors (especially accommodation and food services) showed a significant annual decline in Q1.
Recent Publications
View All
Quarter 2, 2024 Macro Review | Strong gdp growth driven by key sectors amid global and domestic challenges
02
October
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
Quarter 1, 2024 Macro Review | Georgia’s robust growth amid global recovery challenges
28
June
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
Quarter 4, 2023 Macro Review | Georgia's economic resurgence: GDP growth exceeds forecasts amid global slowdown
01
April
2024
Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
2023
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
