In the context of the European Neighbourhood Policy, the EU and Georgia are in the process of negotiating an Association Agreement (AA) to replace the current Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA). A Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), underpinned by regulatory approximation, will be part of this AA. This study supports the negotiation process by analysing how the trade and trade-related provisions of the DCFTA will affect economic, social and environmental developments in the EU and in Georgia. The main objective of this Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment (TSIA) is to assess the potential economic, social, environmental and human rights impacts of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) to be negotiated between the EU and Georgia. This TSIA combines quantitative and qualitative research, in line with the general methodology designed for TSIAs by DG Trade. This methodology covers the following elements: screening and scoping analysis, scenario analysis and quantitative modelling, additional quantitative and qualitative social, human rights and environmental impact analysis, causal chain analysis and sectoral analysis.
APRC is conducting a research on livestock farm- enterprise models in Kakheti to better understand current arrangements and options in livestock market system in the region.
On November 18th, ISET hosted Principle Economist of Asian Development Bank, Dr. Donghyun Park, who gave a presentation on Inequality, Inclusive Growth, and Fiscal Policy in Asia. Dr. Donghyun Park discussed how a recent sharp growth in Asia had a positive effect on the reduction of poverty in the region. However, income inequality is still high and in many Asian countries keeps growing. International experience shows that public spending can reduce income inequality. Representative examples of this trend are government expenditures on education and health. By opening more public schools with better educational level, government helps poor portion of population, as rich people always have option to receive good education from expensive private schools.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the September 2015 releases of various economic indicators. Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage point below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP gorwth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%. Based on the latest update, the annual growth for 2015 is expected to be 2.9%. According to an early forecast for 2016, the growth rate in the first quarter of next year is expected to be 2.8%. Download the full report
On Friday, November 6th, ISET-PI researcher, Charles Johnson spoke at a conference organized by the New Economic School in Tbilisi. The conference, “The Freedom of Money” focused on market-based solutions to monetary policy problems. Charles’ speech was entitled, “Greece, Europe’s Indebted South and How to Deal with Sovereign Debt Crises.” In his speech, he outlined the history of the Greek crises, and why problems with Europe’s institutions caused year-on-year bad lending to Europe’s south, eventually causing the Greek crisis. Charles also offered policy options for countries with sovereign debt crises. He showed evidence as to why austerity – cutting public spending – is counterproductive in times of recession and how it has a multiplier effect in losses to national income. Charles concluded his talk by showing why greater political and fiscal solidarity in the EU can solve ongoing debt crises and prevent new ones from forming in the future.