According to a nationally representative sample of 339 Georgians interviewed in early March 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slightly improved by 0.3 index points, from -19.2 in February to -18.9 in March. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index increased by 0.2 (from -23.8 to -23.6), and the Expectations Index by 0.4 index points (from -14.6 to -14.1) compared to February.

According to a nationally representative sample of 341 Georgians interviewed in late February 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 1.7 index points, from -17.5 in January to -19.2 in February. This dip was driven by the Present Situation Index, which fell from -19.5 to -23.8. The Expectations Index instead rose by 2.9 index points (from -17.5 to -14.6) compared to January.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Being a researcher is not only my job, it is my way of life. Every time I get the chance, I start conversations with random people and ask them tons of questions. During a recent taxi ride, after I asked the driver how his business was going, he told me that the demand for taxis had fallen significantly in January.

Today and tomorrow over a third of the world’s population (around 2 billion people) will be celebrating Christmas1. Traditionally, the holiday season will inevitably feature an exchange of gifts. The sums spent on Christmas gift-giving are huge! For example, in 2018 the expected spending on Christmas gifts in the United States is around 885 USD per person2 – this is about 2.8% of what someone in the middle of income distribution earns per year.