A nationally representative sample of 358 Georgians, interviewed in early May 2019, revealed that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved by 4.3 index points, from -20.8 in April to -16.5 in May. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices from May: the Present Situation Index rose by 3.8 points (from -23.3 to -19.5) and the Expectations Index by 4.8 points (from -18.4 to -13.6).

According to a nationally representative sample of 320 Georgians, interviewed in early April 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by nearly two index points, from -18.9 in March to -20.8 in April. A similar pattern was observed in one of the sub-indices: the Expectations Index declined by 4.3 index points (from -14.1 to -18.4) compared to March, while the Present Situation Index experienced a slight improvement, by 0.3 index points (from -23.6 to -23.3).

According to a nationally representative sample of 339 Georgians interviewed in early March 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slightly improved by 0.3 index points, from -19.2 in February to -18.9 in March. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index increased by 0.2 (from -23.8 to -23.6), and the Expectations Index by 0.4 index points (from -14.6 to -14.1) compared to February.

According to a nationally representative sample of 341 Georgians interviewed in late February 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 1.7 index points, from -17.5 in January to -19.2 in February. This dip was driven by the Present Situation Index, which fell from -19.5 to -23.8. The Expectations Index instead rose by 2.9 index points (from -17.5 to -14.6) compared to January.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.