ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.

Developing Econometric model for Stress Testing and interpreting the results. TBC Bank contracted ISET-PI to work on Economic Capital Stress Testing Methodology, which includes but not limited to developing Stress Testing Econometric Model.