December 2019 GDP Forecast | Tourism and remittances grow; FDI and capital spending improve, but food price inflation spoils the mood this holiday season

The real GDP growth rate reached 5.7% y/y in October 2019. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2019 was 5.1%. ISET-PI’s real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains at 4.4%.
March 2019 GDP Forecast | Will improved CA balance and planed capital investments outweigh pessimism and lack of credit? We’ll see!

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.