Interest in bank profitability is increasing every year. Google search data for Georgia shows that in 2017, there were 4,700 pieces (articles, blogs, comments, and other documents) found for “Banks’ Profit” while the same indicator in 2016 amounted to merely 2,990 pieces. In 2015, it was even smaller – 2,160 pieces. This growing interest has its own objective reason, which is simple: In 2017, compared to the previous year, profits for commercial banks increased dramatically by 190 mln. GEL (if you like percentages, it is 28%), and amounted to 869 mln. GEL.
At the end of January, ISET’s Retail Food Price Index increased by 5.2% y/y (compared to January 2017). On a monthly basis (compared to December 2017), food prices in Tbilisi’s major supermarkets decreased slightly by 0.3%. According to data from the last two weeks of January, prices dropped the most for buckwheat (-6%), rice (-6%), and bananas (-2%).
Based on November 2017 data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 remained at 4.6%. Real GDP growth rate reached 3.7 % y-o-y in November 2017. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2017 was 4.8%.
Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2017. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised upward by 5.3% and 4.9%, respectively (0.2% higher than initial estimates). The third quarter estimates remained unchanged so far.
At the end of October, food prices maintained an upward trend; ISET’s Retail FPI gained 2.6% m/m (compared to the last week of September). On an annual basis (compared to October 2016), we recorded a significant 11.3% increase in food prices. According to data from the last two weeks of October, the biggest increase in price was recorded for tomatoes (99%), for which the price almost doubled due to seasonality.