On February 15th 2021, export quotas on wheat, rye, maize, and barley entered into force in Russia. Russia also imposed customs tariffs and prohibitive duties amounting to 50% of customs value on these products.

Amid softened restrictions consumer confidence is increasing. The Index is up by 2.8 index points and the pattern is similar for both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index went up by 3.9 (from -43.1 to -39.2) and the Expectations Index is up by 1.7 (from -33.4 to -31.7) as can be seen on Chart 1.

In February 2021, the average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian khachapuri stood at 4.69 GEL. This is 3.1% lower MoM (compared to January 2021) and 7.8% higher YoY (in comparison to February of 2020). On a monthly basis, at this time of the year, a downward trend in the index is not unusual, and simply relates to the decreasing price of cheese (due to an increased seasonal supply of fresh milk).

ISET has again affirmed its position among think tanks on the world stage by having the ISET Policy Institute listed once more on the Global Go To Think Tank Index. It is a proud moment for the ISET community since ISET Policy Institute is ranked in the 2020 Top Domestic Economic Policy Think-Tanks globally and 2020 Best Independent Think-Tanks globally.

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020, and their estimated growth stands at -6.5%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2020 amounted to -6.1%, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. Economic activity fell sharply due to global pandemic, although the decline was mitigated by the relatively strong fiscal stimulus and lending.